August 29, 2025

Open Thread 183

It's time for our regular Open Thread. Talk about whatever you want, so long as it isn't Culture War.

This past week, I was a guest on Patrick McKenzie's Complex Systems podcast, talking about ways that the defense industry differs from others, why discourse about "drones" is often wrong, and posing him puzzles from the history of Operations Research. I was delighted to be able to talk to him, and I think it turned out well. (Oh, and for those who don't do audio, there's a detailed transcript at the link as well.)

For those who got here from Complex Systems, hello, and thank you for coming. Naval Gazing started off as a blog about battleships, and has since spread out to cover a lot of stuff. If you're new to defense issues, I would recommend looking through the Intro tag, where I've tried to collect the writing that would be of most use to someone who has no background in the field. And feel free to ask questions, which either I or one of the regulars here should be able to answer.

Overhauls are A Brief Overview of the US Fleet, Military Spaceflight Part 4 and for 2024, Early Underwater Weapons, The Problem of Defense Economics, and reviews of military museums in Boise and the Danish steam frigate Jylland.

Comments

  1. August 29, 2025StupidBro said...

    I have read very interesting article on USNI News: Navy Moving Away from ‘Optionally Manned’ Vessels as Service Mulls Unmanned Future with some debate.

    It kinda looks that USN really want to go full in into LUSV and MUSV concept and they do not want anything "in between".

  2. August 30, 2025Austin Vernon said...

    Bean,

    Enjoyed the interview on Complex Systems.

    Can you elaborate on the Kamikazi story where the engagement range by US fighters made a difference? I didn't quite understand it in the interview, but it seemed interesting.

    Austin

  3. August 30, 2025bean said...

    Sure. The Japanese only gave their kamikaze pilots very rudimentary training, and "how to navigate by a means other than looking out and flying towards something you see" was not on that list. So a kamikaze formation would involve a single guy who did know how to navigate and a few dozen people who didn't. The guy who could navigate would get them within visual range, then go home.

    But what the USN found was that if they could intercept the formation before that point, then everyone's first concern was not getting shot down, so they'd scatter, and afterwards, the pilots would have no idea what to do, so they'd mostly just keep flying until they ran out of fuel and fell into the sea. Even if an occasional one did find the fleet, it was on its own, which made it pretty likely that the ship's AA guns could handle it. On the other hand, if the kamikaze formation was already able to see the fleet, then you'd still see basically the same sort of attack as normal.

  4. September 04, 2025Austin Vernon said...

    Got it, makes perfect sense. Should it be surprising that we didn't have better radar and airborne control to guide the fighters to win every engagement this way? Given how many aircraft we had at that point it seems like it wouldn't be an aircraft limitation.

  5. September 04, 2025Paul Brinkley said...

    Back from my trip to Duluth. Given the interest here in maritime tourist attractions, I can give a brief assessment:

    We first rode The Vista Fleet sightseeing tour. It sets out under Duluth's Aerial Lift Bridge, ventures about a mile out into Lake Superior, circles back, and about as far up into Saint Louis Bay. About as far as Hallett Dock IIRC. Just before it you'll get a nice close look at an old loading dock where you can see the engineer had two more cars than he first realized. Along the way is a fair bit of lore, along with some background on Duluth's past and current harbor activity. Had I more experience, I'm sure I could have asked some good questions, but all I could do was just absorb what I could.

    About 30 or 40 miles to the northeast is Split Rock Lighthouse, perhaps the most scenic lighthouse on the lake. It was one of the first erected, in response to the great Mataafa Storm of 1905. AIUI, ships no longer require lighthouses, but many of them still stand as landmarks or parks. (I'm interested in what specific improvements obsoleted the lighthouses, but could not find anything described in the various exhibits there.)

    Split Rock was restored to its appearance circa 1920. Renovation on support buildings and a few new paths were in progress when we visited. We were able to enter one of the residences, where some of the original furnishing can still be found. You can also climb the lighthouse itself, up to just under the big lens, where you can see the mechanism that harnesses gravity to keep it slowly rotating. It still works; they "wind it up" about twice a day. That entire outcropping sports a great view of the lake, all the way to the islands of Wisconsin on the other side, about 22 miles away. (Obviously, weather could deny this.)

    Tickets are $15 per adult. I noticed several hiking paths in the area, but didn't have time to explore them all.

    Weather was good the whole week - a few short showers, but mostly sunny otherwise, so I'll happily recommend mid-August as the time to go.

  6. September 04, 2025bean said...

    @Austin

    The problem is that while we did have a lot of fighters, and pretty good radar, it was very non-trivial to go from "dots on a CRT" to "directing a group of fighters to intercept". I talk about this some here. The big change the kamikazes brought was actually multiplying how many raids there were to the point that it could sort of overwhelm the apparatus we had in place to deal with the previous setup, which was great against a few big raids.

    @Paul

    Thanks for that. I will add it to the list of reviews.

  7. September 05, 2025Austin Vernon said...

    Interesting. It makes more sense now when I think how fast the aircraft were moving relative to the radar range at the time.

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