It's time once again for our regular Open Thread. Talk about whatever you want, so long as it isn't Culture War.

With 2022 behind us, it is time for the William D. Brown Memorial Award, for the biggest naval screwup that didn't kill anyone. This year, the jury decided to give the award to a non-naval party, Evergreen Marine, for the Ever Forward grounding, on the basis that they have broken William D. Brown's record for the worst grounding ever in Chesapeake Bay, managing to run a bigger ship aground and keep it there for twice as long. For the second year in a row, the runner-up was the US Navy, this time for the disaster that was the prosecution of the sailor eventually acquitted of setting fire to the Bonhomme Richard. It looks like NCIS is up to its old tricks again.

Also, a reminder that Naval Gazing now has a discord, which has seen some interesting discussions over the last two weeks, including Johan's aliens and me complaining about various aspects of the writing process.

Overhauls are New Year's Logs, Naval Bases from Space - Hawaii and for 2021/2022 NWAS - British Polaris, Naval Video Games and Coastal Defenses and the Battleship in the 19th Century.

From the early 70s onward, the Sea Sparrow was the primary point-defense missile used by the USN. But it had always suffered from a fundamental handicap. It was a derivative of the AIM-7 Sparrow air-to-air missile, and the Navy's desire to maintain commonality between the two had limited what they could do with the Sea Sparrow. But by the mid-80s, it was obvious that the air-launched Sparrow would soon be superseded by the new AIM-120 AMRAAM, opening the way for a version of the missile entirely dedicated to the naval point-defense role.

A Japanese destroyer launches an ESSM

The result was the RIM-162 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile, generally known as ESSM. It was designed to be more or less a drop-in replacement within the various environments where the existing Sea Sparrow missile was used, although the designers, freed from the form factor of the existing missiles, chose to completely redesign the aerodynamics, replacing the big fins, useful at altitude, with small fins and strakes optimized to work near sea level. The result resembled a miniature version of the SM-2MR, and the reduction in the size of the fins allowed the missile to be packed much more densely, with four fitting into one cell on the Mk 41 VLS. Even with this, the 8" motor previously used could be replaced with a 10" model optimized for the task, which not only gave the missile far more energy, doubling range, but was also optimized to burn quickly. This got the missile up to maximum speed (around Mach 4) early on, helping performance, and reduced how much the smoke from the motor interfered with optical tracking of incoming targets. To enable VLS launch and improve close-in maneuverability, a thrust vector control system is fitted. The design goal for the missile is to be able to maneuver at 50G, giving it the capability to take out a supersonic missile maneuvering at 4G.¹ Most of the guidance system was taken from the late-model Sea Sparrow, easing integration with Aegis, NATO Sea Sparrow systems, and other fire-control systems designed for the earlier missile, although the autopilot was upgraded and the warhead was fitted with insensitive explosives, less likely to go off in case it was caught in a fire. Read more...

My parents recently went to France, and the Fatherly One has agreed to review what is, for for those who did not study French: the Air and Space Museum

The Motherly One in the Pioneers of Aviation Hall²

One of the oldest aviation museums in the world, it is in the Le Bourget terminal opened in 1937. The museum is predominantly divided into sections by era with sections devoted to Pioneers of Aviation, the Great War, the Interwar era, WW II. Other areas are Space Exploration, Helicopters, Prototypes, the Cocarde Hall (French military aviation), the Children’s Area, a Library and the Concorde Hall. You could easily spend two days in this place if you were the type to read every placard and consider every exhibit. We (The Motherly One and I) did not view Helicopters, Prototypes, The Children’s Area (too old!), the Museum Library (prior permission needed) and the Cocarde hall as 5 hours on premises was enough! There is also an outside airpark with some tired looking examples of 1960s era Soviet aircraft and in another part of the airpark several examples of current French military and civilian aircraft. Read more...

I'd like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas (or other solstice-adjacent holiday, as appropriate) and a happy New Year. Other than that, rules are as usual. Talk about whatever you want, so long as it isn't Culture War.

As an experiment, I've set up a Discord server. I make no promises about what I'll do with it, but expect at least some behind the scenes/off the cuff stuff from me.

Overhauls are The Death of Force Z, along with Phalanx and The Two-Power Standard Today.

On April 9th, 1940, Hitler unleashed his military machine on Norway, breaking that country's neutrality and overwhelming the unprepared defenders at cities including Oslo, Kristiansand, Stavangar, Bergen and Trondheim using troops carried aboard warships. The British had their fleet in the North Sea, and Renown had fought Scharnhorst and Gneisenau off the mouth of the fjord leading into the strategic city of Narvik, but the Germans had gotten 10 destroyers into the town ahead of them. The first attempt to drive the Germans out with a destroyer force had failed with casualties on both sides, but on April 13th, the British returned to try again with a heavier force.

British destroyers approach Narvik for the second time

Despite the imagined risk of coastal guns and mines, this force would be built around the battleship Warspite, escorted by nine destroyers. The very real risk posed by five U-boats in the area was almost entirely ignored, even after the force ran across U48 at the entrance to the Ofotfjorden. Destroyer Eskimo depth-charged the submarine without success, and her crew recovered in time to fire a full salvo of torpedoes at Warspite, but without success.⁴ A second submarine, U46, managed to slip undetected inside the destroyer screen, but ran aground just before firing and missed her opportunity. Read more...

The compromise National Defense Authorization Act has just been released, bringing with it a better idea of where Congress is sending things. And in a shocking development, they appear to have actually been paying attention to the war in Ukraine. One of the lessons (entirely predictable by anyone who has been paying attention for the last century or so) is that war goes through a lot of munitions very quickly, and nobody has enough laying around. This showed even quite early, as we saw the rate of Javelin expenditure, and has become even more apparent in recent days, as Russia has seen its stocks of cruise missiles dwindle to almost nothing. And Congress has responded by...significantly increasing munitions procurement pretty much across the board.

They're embracing multi-year buys covering the next 5 years, and doubling or tripling the planned procurement rates. LRASM goes from 381⁵ to 950 missiles. SM-6 is going from 744 to 1500. NSM is set to rise to 1250 weapons, and while there isn't clear planning in the FY23 budget request (the FY22 budget lists numbers in the 30s), 250 missiles/year is listed there as the cap on production. Read more...

On April 9th, 1940, Hitler unleashed his military machine on Norway, breaking that country's neutrality and overwhelming the unprepared defenders at cities including Oslo, Kristiansand, Stavangar, Bergen and Trondheim using troops carried aboard warships. The British had their fleet in the North Sea, and Renown had fought Scharnhorst and Gneisenau off the mouth of the fjord leading into Narvik, but they had been unable to intervene and prevent the Germans from running 10 destroyers into that strategic town and securing it with minimal struggle.

German destroyers anchored in Narvik

The scale of all this was unclear to the British offshore, even as a force under Admiral William Whitworth assembled off Narvik during the 9th. While most of Home Fleet was well to the south, he had not only Renown, but also her sister Repulse, cruiser Penelope and a number of destroyers. Among them was 2nd Destroyer Flotilla under Bernard Warburton-Lee, who at noon received orders from the Admiralty indicating that the Germans had sent a ship to Narvik, and ordering him to take his ships in and see what was going on. If possible, he was to retake Narvik, or at the very least capture the mythical batteries protecting the city. Warburton-Lee complied, bringing with him destroyers Hardy, Hotspur, Hunter, Hostile and Havock, although more ships were available and probably would have been dispatched if the Admiralty had contacted Whitworth instead of going directly to Warburton-Lee. The casual tone of the order was baffling given the ongoing German invasion, and it left the men on the spot with the impression that the Admiralty knew far more than they did. This was often the case, but here it would prove tragically wrong. Read more...

It's time for our regular open thread. Talk about whatever you want, so long as it isn't culture war.

Recently, Veritasium visited NSWC Carderock and did an interesting video on the MASK basin:

https://youtu.be/pir_muTzYM8

Also, I am planning one more virtual meetup next weekend, on Saturday the 17th at 1 PM Central (GMT-6). We'll use the usual Teams link. Hope to see you guys there.

Overhauls are Ironclads and Research Vessels. 2021 overhauls are The 6th Battle Squadron Part 2, my review of Ultimate Admiral - Dreadnoughts* and Eilat.

"Hypersonic" is the big buzzword in defense today. Russia, China and the US are all rushing to develop weapons in this new class, which travel above Mach 5, and pundits talk breathlessly about how they'll change everything. As usual, most of the discussion misses several basic facts. Hypersonic weapons have been around for the better part of a century, and while they have already played a major role in changing warfare, the weapons under discussion today are unlikely to live up to the hype they've been given.

A ship-launched hypersonic weapon

The most basic of hypersonic weapons is of course the ballistic missile, dating back to the famous V-2. While this was an excellent weapon, at least from the perspective of the Allies, ballistic missiles didn't really come into their own until the development of small nuclear warheads, which could compensate for the inherent inaccuracy of the type. The combination of ballistic missile and nuclear warhead quickly came to dominate the strategic battle between the superpowers. Their high speed meant that warning times fell from hours to minutes, putting everyone on a hair trigger. They were also immune to conventional defenses, although the inherent difficulty of shooting them down is generally exaggerated. Read more...

A couple months ago, I wrote up a critique of an EA organization's take on the risks of nuclear war, focusing mostly on their analysis of how much of America's and Russia's arsenals would survive a first strike by the other side. There were a lot of issues, most of which boiled down to the author not having a good grasp of the broader defense world, and thus not knowing what questions to ask.

This ship's pipeline distributes oil, not information, but illustrations are hard.

But I can't really blame the author for doing a bad job. How would someone whose background is in evaluating the cost-effectiveness of various charitable interventions know to ask how much time an SSBN spends deployed? More broadly, there's a major gap in public communications about the defense world. There's a lot of stuff talking about things like systems and capabilities, but there's very little, particularly online, that systematically equips people to think about it well. Books are somewhat better, but even there, there seems to be surprisingly little focus on deliberately bridging the information gap.⁶ But in general, the people who are interested for whatever reason just pick it up by reading a bunch of books, while the people who aren't continue to be confused by the articles they read, most of which are not written by people who have crossed the gap. Read more...