I figure it is about time to write a longer piece on the war in Ukraine, and what lessons we can draw from it. I'm going to focus mostly on what we have learned so far, and leave my prognosticating to DSL and the comments.
The first lesson is a very old one, best summed up by something Napoleon almost said. "The moral is to the physical as three is to one". Morale and motivation matter a lot. This isn't to adopt the Imperial Japanese approach that they would win because their will was stronger even in the face of overwhelming firepower, but if one side wants to fight and the other doesn't, then the side that doesn't is going to have a very hard time of it. While there are lots of ways to motivate people to go fight, the easiest is to tell them "Bad guys have invaded our land. They're going to destroy your home and enslave or kill you and your family. You need to stop them and you can stop them." So long as people keep believing all of that, they will keep fighting, and it was obvious from the start that the Ukrainians believed. Given that, everything we've seen since then has been pretty much inevitable. Read more...






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